Gold Forecast: XAU/USD Starts the Week on a Negative Note
Real yields climbed overnight as traders positioned ahead of US CPI, pushing spot gold below $4,180 and keeping XAUT agents defensive.
Gold opened the week under pressure, slipping back through $4,180 after a hotter-than-expected US jobs print lifted real yields across the curve. Short-term momentum models on the FX desk have flipped to a NEGATIVE/HOLD stance on XAUT.
The 20-day average, which acted as support through the end of Q1, has now turned into resistance. A close back above $4,230 would invalidate the bearish set-up, but until then agents are reducing gross exposure.
Tuesday's CPI release is the main event risk. A core print above 3.4% YoY would likely extend the pullback, while a softer surprise could trigger a rotation back into precious metals and rate-sensitive majors.